Feb 9, 2009

Retail Sales To Improve In Second Half: NRFBy Alan WolfTwice.com

Washington, DC — Retail sales are expected to begin to rebound by the second half of the year, according to a recent economic forecast from The National Retail Federation (NRF).

The trade group’s quarterly Retail Sales Outlook report, which projects retail industry revenue (excluding car dealerships, gas stations and restaurants), forecast a 3.6 percent increase in fourth-quarter sales due to a strengthening economy and easy year-over-year comparisons.

Sales declines will begin to slow in the third quarter, when retail revenues will decrease just 1.1 percent, the report said.

In the meantime, first-half sales are expected to decline 2.5 percent as last year’s economic weakness carries into the first six months of 2009 and consumers continue to shift their spending priorities.

Total 2009 sales are projected to slip 0.5 percent, according to the NRF forecast.

“Most of the consumer behavior we saw in 2008 will continue well into this year,” said NRF chief economist Rosalind Wells. “Shoppers will be seeking value and trading down to discount and off-price retailers in order to stretch their purchasing power.”

Indeed, a pair of economic reports released last month by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) and the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence continued its downward slide in January, driven largely by job insecurity.

Read complete article.