Aug 9, 2022

NRF notes imports slowing, but expects gains over 2021

After a record-setting spring, imports at the nation’s major container ports are expected to slow significantly for the remainder of the year but 2022 should still see a net gain over 2021, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Retail sales are still growing, but the economy is slowing down and that is reflected in cargo imports,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy for NRF said. “Lower volumes may help ease congestion at some ports, but others are still seeing backups and global supply chain challenges are far from over. Our biggest concern is the potential for disruption because of separate labor negotiations at the West Coast ports and the freight railroads. Concluding both sets of negotiations without disruption is critical as the important holiday season approaches.”

The contract between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association expired July 1, and many retailers brought in cargo early and shifted to East and Gulf Coast ports to avoid any potential disruptions related to contract negotiations, with early shipments helping drive second-quarter volumes. The freight railroads and their union are now working with a Presidential Emergency Board to resolve their contract discussions, which have been ongoing for two years. In addition, the Port of Oakland was briefly shut down in late July amid protests by independent truckers over a new state law aimed at eliminating independent owner-operators.

“The heady days of growth in imports are quickly receding,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said. “The outlook is for a decline in volumes compared with 2021 over the next few months, and the decline is expected to deepen in 2023.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in June, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 5.9% from May’s 2.4 million TEU – the largest number of containers imported in a single month since NRF began tracking imports in 2002 – but up 4.9% year over year.

June’s results brought the first half of the year to 13.5 million TEU, a 5.5% increase year over year.

Ports have not yet reported July’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.26 million TEU, up 3.2% year over year. August is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, down 3%; September at 2.15 million TEU, up 0.4%; October at 2.13 million TEU, down 3.9%; November at 2.06 million TEU, down 2.7%, and December at 2.03 million TEU, down 3%.

Those numbers would bring the second half of the year to 12.8 million TEU, down 1.5% from the same period last year. But 2022 overall is expected to total 26.3 million TEU, up 2% from last year’s annual record of 25.8 million TEU.

The cargo data comes as NRF continues to forecast that 2022 retail sales will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021. Sales were up 7% during the first half of the year.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.