Retail body forecasts 2.5% US sales rise
Retail sales in the US are set to rebound this year, according to the National Retail Federation industry group.
The NRF said it expected “positive signs” from the housing market and employment levels to strengthen consumer confidence throughout the year.
It forecast a 2.5 per cent rise in retail sales for 2010, excluding spending on cars, petrol and restaurants, compared with a 2.5 per cent fall last year. Rosalind Wells, chief economist, said shoppers were expected “to continue to be frugal with discretionary spending” but retailers would start to benefit from “leaner, smarter inventories” and 18 months of “pent up consumer demand”.
“As we continue to see signs of improvement throughout the US economy in 2010, overall sentiment will begin to lift, making way for slight increases in consumer spending,” she said.
Other positive contributions will come from trade, especially strong exports, a turnround in the inventory cycle, and federal government spending.
The NRF also expected consumer spending to continue to lag behind overall growth, as households pay down debt levels.
Sales in the November to December holiday season were at the high end of conservative expectations, up 1.1 per cent according to the NRF against its forecast of a 1 per cent fall.
