Nov 2, 2009

Forrester predicts online retail sales will grow 8% this holiday seasonBy InternetRetailer.com

Online holiday retail sales will grow 8% this year to $44.7 billion, predicts Forrester Research Inc. That would represent a continued shift of shopping to the web, as the National Retail Federation has forecast total retail sales will decline 1% this holiday season.

“Despite the lingering effects of the recession, the online space remains the retail industry`s growth engine,” says Forrester e-commerce analyst Sucharita Mulpuru. “What`s different this holiday from past years is that online retailers will manage to the bottom line, which will change some of the tactics they have employed in the past.” Those changes will include more selective use of discounting and free shipping offers, Mulpuru says in the report “US Online Holiday Retail Forecast, 2009.”

The 8% growth projection is based on data from both consumer and retailer surveys Forrester has conducted in the past few months. The research firm found 94% of consumers who have purchased online in the past three months plan to shop at web sites this holiday season, up from 92% last year. (Forrester defines the holiday season as November and December.) In addition, 72% of retailers Forrester surveyed in the third quarter for “The State of Retailing Online 2009” published by e-commerce trade group Shop.org say they expect their online sales will be higher this year than last.

Better than last year is not particularly high praise, Mulpuru notes. “Given last year’s slumping sales, retailers are up against less aggressive comps this year, which accounts for a positive 2009 holiday outlook,” she writes. Forrester estimates online retail sales last November and December totaled $41.4 billion.

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