Some local retailers are shrugging off congressional dithering on a finance-sector aid package and the resultant stock market fall-off that’s unnerved everyday American shoppers.
“Consumers are starting to spend much more cautiously,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Even before the fall-off in stocks and the gridlock in Washington over the bailout bill, the normally upbeat National Retail Federation forecast retail sales for November and December to rise at the slowest pace in six years. The Washington D.C.-based trade group said it expects sales to rise 2.2 percent to $470.4 billion, half the 4.4-percent average increase for those months that’s occurred for the past decade.
“We expect consumers to be frugal this season and less willing to splurge on discretionary items,” said Rosalind Wells, chief economist at the NRF.
The outlook is even gloomier from TNS Retail Forward, a market research firm based in Columbus, Ohio. Retail Forward expects the fourth quarter to be the weakest holiday season in 17 years, with sales rising 1.5 percent compared with 1.2 percent in 1991.
Yesterday, the New York-based Conference Board’s confidence index fell to 55 from 56 in August, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
