Christmas in July; Retailers order stock, cross fingers for holidays
Shoppers might not think about Christmas in July, but you can bet their favorite stores do.
For some retailers, the weeks between Halloween and New Year’s generate half – or more – of their annual sales. Where they fall on the solvency scale on Dec. 31 can depend on whether they stocked the right merchandise mix for the holidays.
It can also depend on the weather. A mid-December ice storm last year pushed thousands of residents out of their cold, dark homes and put an early end to holiday shopping.
“It closed down Christmas,” said Sara Keltsch, who owns The Monogram Shoppe. “Those of us who made it through can’t survive another Christmas like that.”
As a result, area retailers are under intense pressure to make up for last year, when fourth-quarter national retail sales fell for the first time in more than a decade.
Decisions about how much to invest in inventory are always important, but this time they could make or break retailers. Order too much and they could be forced to offer deep discounts to move merchandise. Order too little and they could miss out on a potential rebound. Some economists predict the recession will officially end in the next six months.
Rosalind Wells, the National Retail Federation’s chief economist, said “the worst is behind us” in the Retail Sales Outlook Summer 2009. She has forecast improving economic conditions through the fall and winter.
Retailers’ responses to the inventory question are as varied as the items they sell. One local gift shop is cutting back – slightly. A home décor store and a local liquor store chain are increasing inventory. A small jeweler and a major retail chain are holding steady this year.
Their timelines also differ.
Some local shop owners are placing final holiday orders now. Others locked in their inventories months ago. Still others receive weekly deliveries throughout the holiday season, allowing them to increase or decrease orders to mirror sales.