September Sales May Foreshadow Holidays
Retailers and analysts will be closely watching September sales reports due Thursday from key store chains for any sign they may need to adjust their already-gloomy holiday forecasts.
Two analyst reports predict that Christmas-season sales will be flat with last year’s dismal results while a third projects they will fall 1%. Stores have been slashing inventories in hopes they can avoid profit-sapping price cuts.
Retailers also are planning plenty of bargains to lure thrifty holiday shoppers. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. says it will offer about 100 toys priced at $10 — compared with just 10 such toys last year. Consumers are still “under a lot of pressure,” said Wal-Mart’s chief executive, Mike Duke.
For consumers, “it’s a badge of honor to not spend as much as they used to,” Linda Heasley, CEO of specialty retailer The Limited, said at a retail conference in New York last week.
Analysts are looking to the September sales figures for stores open least a year — a key measure of retailers’ health and consumer spending — for clues about Christmas. These results are predicted to fall 1% to 2% compared to September 2008. That would be a harbinger of a season filled with bargain hunting and last-minute gift shopping.
The projected September decline is particularly worrisome because a late Labor Day and later school-start dates helped boost the month’s sales, and a decline in September sales last year makes year-ago comparisons easier.
The numbers will be reported Thursday by about 30 retailers, including Macy’s Inc., Target Corp. and Gap Inc., but exclude Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Best Buy Co. because they decline to report monthly figures.
