Oct 21, 2009

Holiday Sales Preview RoundupBy David BodamerBlog.RetailTrafficMag.com

Most of the major predictions are now in for the holiday shopping season. Here we’ve put together a roundup of what various trade associations and research outlets are predicting. Projections range a bit this year. Some groups are calling for a slight decline, other say sales will be flat and some say sales will show a slight uptick.

In part, the differences stem from the different way the groups look at the numbers. ICSC and Retail Forward, for example, look at same-store sales while the National Retail Federation looks at total sales. For its part, Deloitte is working off Commerce Department data. NPD bases its projection on surveys it completes. And ShopperTrak’s metrics are based off its proprietary foot traffic counts. Collectively, the data gives a fairly well-rounded picture of what the experts are expecting to see for the critical season.

The bottom line is that all the groups expect the season to be stronger than 2008’s disastrous holiday shopping season, but the recovery will be modest.

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